foreshock
IndexAI & Machine LearningNo. 43 declining

Reasoning model

Large language model designed for reasoning tasks

+37%
vs its own baseline
11×
year on year
-7.5%
per month, last 90 days
79
confidence / 100
32 597 1,161 1,726 where it used to sit Aug 25 Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jun 26 Sep 26
Attention share · views per billion sitewide, weekly 56 weeks to 2 Sep 2026 Normalised, deseasonalised — sitewide swings removed

Why we think this is real

Six tests · all shown, pass or fail

The floor moved, not just the peak

Its quietest recent week still sits 27% above the old baseline. A news spike leaves the floor where it was.

1.27×

Not one event

Share of the last four months of extra attention that landed in its busiest seven days. High means a single story, not a trend.

23%

Not the calendar

How much of this topic's shape repeats every year. The annual cycle is estimated per topic and divided out before anything is measured.

12%

Human traffic

Bot and scraper traffic is flat across the week. Anything with implausibly low day-to-day variation, or with no weekday/weekend pattern at all, is dropped before it reaches this page.

0.71× weekend

Enough history to judge

Long enough to separate this year's move from last year's level.

403 days

Confirmed somewhere else

No second source yet. Common for consumer and culture topics, which do not show up in developer data.

0 of 4 sources

What it is

Wikipedia

Reasoning language models (RLMs) or large reasoning models (LRMs) are large language models that are trained further to solve tasks that take several steps of reasoning. They tend to do better on logic, math, and programming tasks than standard LLMs, can revisit and revise earlier steps, and make use of extra computation while answering as another way to scale performance, alongside the number of training examples, parameters, and training…

Excerpt from Reasoning model on Wikipedia, by its contributors, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0. Trimmed for length.

Near this on the curve

AI & Machine Learning
047

Grokipedia new

AI & Machine Learning · 24k views/mo ·1 outside source
-11%
vs baseline
declining
031

Generative AI new

AI & Machine Learning · 47k views/mo ·1 outside source
15×
vs baseline
rising