foreshock
IndexPolitics & SocietyNo. 44 declining

Gaza genocide recognition

+97%
vs its own baseline
year on year
+7.7%
per month, last 90 days
82
confidence / 100
243 759 1,274 1,790 where it used to sit Oct 25 Dec 25 Feb 26 Apr 26 Jun 26 Sep 26
Attention share · views per billion sitewide, weekly 47 weeks to 2 Sep 2026 Normalised, deseasonalised — sitewide swings removed

Why we think this is real

Six tests · all shown, pass or fail

The floor moved, not just the peak

Its quietest recent week still sits 38% above the old baseline. A news spike leaves the floor where it was.

1.38×

Not one event

Share of the last four months of extra attention that landed in its busiest seven days. High means a single story, not a trend.

29%

Not the calendar

How much of this topic's shape repeats every year. The annual cycle is estimated per topic and divided out before anything is measured.

0%

Human traffic

Bot and scraper traffic is flat across the week. Anything with implausibly low day-to-day variation, or with no weekday/weekend pattern at all, is dropped before it reaches this page.

0.90× weekend

Enough history to judge

Long enough to separate this year's move from last year's level.

335 days

Confirmed somewhere else

No second source yet. Common for consumer and culture topics, which do not show up in developer data.

0 of 4 sources

What it is

Wikipedia

Since October 2023, the government of Israel has been accused of committing genocide against the Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip by several states across the world. The government of South Africa formally accused the country of genocide in December that year in a case before the International Court of Justice, with 14 countries joining the case by December the next year. Explicit state positions on the genocide include recognition, denial, or deferral to the ultimate result of the pending case. Acts of…

Excerpt from Gaza genocide recognition on Wikipedia, by its contributors, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0. Trimmed for length.

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