foreshock
IndexPolitics & SocietyNo. 40 declining

Opinion polling for the 2026 Victorian state election

+217%
vs its own baseline
year on year
+13.7%
per month, last 90 days
80
confidence / 100
1k 4k 8k 11k where it used to sit Nov 25 Jan 26 Mar 26 May 26 Jul 26 Sep 26
Attention share · views per billion sitewide, weekly 44 weeks to 2 Sep 2026 Normalised, deseasonalised — sitewide swings removed

Why we think this is real

Six tests · all shown, pass or fail

The floor moved, not just the peak

Its quietest recent week still sits 71% above the old baseline. A news spike leaves the floor where it was.

1.71×

Not one event

Share of the last four months of extra attention that landed in its busiest seven days. High means a single story, not a trend.

33%

Not the calendar

How much of this topic's shape repeats every year. The annual cycle is estimated per topic and divided out before anything is measured.

0%

Human traffic

Bot and scraper traffic is flat across the week. Anything with implausibly low day-to-day variation, or with no weekday/weekend pattern at all, is dropped before it reaches this page.

0.90× weekend

Enough history to judge

Long enough to separate this year's move from last year's level.

311 days

Confirmed somewhere else

No second source yet. Common for consumer and culture topics, which do not show up in developer data.

0 of 4 sources

What it is

Wikipedia

In the lead-up to the 2026 Victorian state election in November 2026, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individual electoral district…

Excerpt from Opinion polling for the 2026 Victorian state election on Wikipedia, by its contributors, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0. Trimmed for length.

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